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The Most Important Time in History Is Now
AI is progressing so fast that its researchers are freaking out. It is now routinely more intelligent than humans, and its speed of development is accelerating. New developments from the last few weeks have accelerated it even more. Now, it looks like AIs can be more intelligent than humans in 1–5 years, and intelligent like gods soon after. We’re at the precipice, and we’re about to jump off the cliff of AI superintelligence, whether we want to or not.
When are we jumping?
What’s at the bottom?
Do we have a parachute?
Market Predictions
Six months ago, I wrote What Would You Do If You Had 8 Years Left to Live?, where I explained that the market predicted Artificial General Intelligence (AGI, an AI capable of doing what most humans can do) eight years later, by 2032. Since then, that date has been pulled forward. It’s now predicted to arrive in just six years, so six months were enough to pull the date forward by one year. Odds now looks like this:
But AI that matches human intelligence is not the most concerning milestone. The most concerning one is ASI, Artificial SuperIntelligence: an intelligence so far beyond human capabilities that we can’t even comprehend it.
According to forecasters, that will come in five years:
- Two years to weak AGI, so by the end of 2026
- Three years later, Superintelligence, so by the end of 2029
As you can see, these forecasts aren’t perfectly consistent, but they are aligned: An AI that can do any task better than any human is half a decade away.
Who’s best positioned to know for sure? I assume it’s the heads of the biggest AI labs in the world. What do they say?
